International St. Lawrence River Board of Control

MEDIA RELEASE

 

 

Lake Ontario Outflow Strategy

February 17, 2004

 

The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control (Board) met by teleconference on February 11 to discuss current and anticipated conditions, as well as operations since early January, and decided to update the outflow strategy announced on January 16 as follows: 

  1. Outflows will generally be in accordance with those specified by Plan 1958-D;
  2. Outflows may be adjusted to maintain a stable ice cover or prevent unforeseen flooding.

 

The strategy will be followed until the next Board teleconference on March 10 when conditions will again be reviewed.

 

The Board considered the following factors (among others) in its strategy considerations:

►  The ice downstream of the Moses-Saunders hydropower plant formed and stabilized during the January 8-13 period.  The ice cover upstream of Moses-Saunders was essentially complete by January 20th .  These allowed the outflows to be increased such that Lake Ontario’s outflow averaged 6450 m3/s in January, which is 102 percent of the monthly average.  The total accumulated outflow deviations from Plan 1958-D, as of February 11, were about 0.7 cm (0.3 inch) of water removed from Lake Ontario.

►  On February 9, Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron were 22 cm (8.7 inches) and 46 cm (18 inches) below average, respectively.  Lake Erie was 13 cm (5.1 inches) below average and 11 cm (4.3 inches) above last year.  Lake Erie is expected to remain below average throughout the next 6 months.  A change in Lake Erie elevation of 13 cm (4.3 inches) results in about a 260 m3/s (9,000 cfs) change in Niagara River flow.

►  On February 9, Lake Ontario was at elevation 74.78 m (245.34 ft).  This was 19 cm (7.5 inches) above average and 49 cm (19.3 inches) above last year.  The lake has been slowly falling since mid-January, at a time when it is usually rising.  This level is also 59 cm (1.9 ft) below the upper regulation limit, and 63 cm (2.1 ft) above the lower regulation limit that applies during the navigation season.

►  The level of Lake Ontario is expected to fall over the next few weeks and be 4 cm (1.6 inches) above average by the end of March if average water supplies are received, and be about 8 cm (3.1 inches) below average by the end of June.  The end-of-June level would then be at about 74.96 m (245.93 ft), some 41 cm (16.1 inches) below the upper regulation limit.  The regulation plan continues to specify above-average outflows in response to the above average supplies of water received last November and December.  If very wet or very dry conditions prevail between now and the end of June, the water level could be 26 cm (10.2 inches) higher or 22 cm (8.7 inches) lower, respectively.  The risk of exceeding the upper regulation limit is extremely low.

►   The below-average levels of Lake Erie will produce below-average inflows to Lake Ontario over the next 6 months.

►  Downstream conditions were noted: Lake St. Louis is 39 cm (15.4 inches) above average and 103 cm (3.4 ft) above last year; Montreal Harbour is 13 cm (5.1 inches) below average, but 138 cm (4.5 ft) above last year.

►  The long-range weather forecast is for near-normal precipitation and temperatures.

►  The water content of the Lake Ontario basin snow pack was estimated to be about 133 % of the average for early February, and the Ottawa River basin snow pack estimates ranged from 85 % of average in the lower (unregulated) portion of the basin to as much as 130 % of average in the upper (regulated) portion of the basin.  

►  With the lake expected to be below average by early April, this would reduce the risk of shoreline damages during the spring storm season that usually reaches its peak intensity in April. 

 

The Board, in conjunction with its staff, will continue to monitor the situation and act accordingly.  This information can also be found on the Board web site (see below) and will be updated as required.

 

The International Joint Commission was created under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 to help prevent and resolve disputes over the use of waters along the Canada-United States boundary.  Its responsibilities include approving certain projects that would change water levels on the other side of the boundary, such as the international hydropower project at Massena, New York and Cornwall, Ontario.  When it approves a project, the Commission’s Orders of Approval may require that flows through the project meet certain conditions to protect interests in both countries.  For more information, visit the Commission’s website at http://www.ijc.org/.

 

The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control was established by the International Joint Commission, mainly to ensure that outflows from Lake Ontario meet the requirements of the Commission’s Orders of Approval.  For more information, visit the Board’s website at http://www.islrbc.org/.

 

For Release: February 17, 2004

 

Contacts:

John Kangas, Chicago, Illinois              (312) 353-4333

Reg Golding, Ottawa, Ontario               (613) 998-1408