Lake
Ontario Outflow Strategy
(March
12, 2004) |
The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control
(Board) met by teleconference on March 10 to discuss current
and anticipated conditions, as well as operations since
early February, and decided to continue the outflow strategy
announced on February 17. That is:
- Outflows will generally be in accordance with those
specified by Plan 1958-D;
- Outflows may be adjusted to maintain a stable ice
cover or prevent flooding.
The strategy will be followed until the Board meeting on
March 23-24 when conditions will again be reviewed.
The Board considered the following factors (among others)
in its strategy considerations:
► On March 8, Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron
were 19 cm (7.5 inches) and 43 cm (17 inches) below
average, respectively. Lake Erie was 9 cm (3.5 inches)
below average and 21 cm (8.3 inches) above last year. Lake
Erie is expected to remain below average throughout the
next 6 months.
► On March 8, Lake Ontario was at elevation 74.72
m (245.14 ft). This was 8 cm (3.1 inches) above average
and 43 cm (16.9 inches) above last year. The Lake had been
slowly falling since mid-January, but may have begun its
seasonal rise in the past few days. This level is also 65
cm (2.1 ft) below the upper regulation limit, and 57 cm
(1.9 ft) above the lower regulation limit that applies
during the navigation season.
► The level of Lake Ontario is expected to rise
to about 74.96 m (245.93 ft) by the end of June. The
end-of-June level would then be about 8 cm (3.1 inches)
below average and 41 cm (16.1 inches) below the upper
regulation limit. If very wet or very dry conditions
prevail between now and the end of June, the water level
could be 21 cm (8.3 inches) higher or 22 cm (8.7 inches)
lower, respectively, than the expected level of 74.96 m
(245.93 ft). The risk of exceeding the upper regulation
limit is extremely low.
► The below-average levels of Lake Erie will
produce below-average inflows to Lake Ontario over the
next 6 months. A change in Lake Erie elevation of 9 cm
(3.5 inches) results in about a 190 m3/s (6,700
cfs) change in Niagara River flow.
► Downstream conditions were noted: Lake St.
Louis is 25 cm (9.8 inches) above average and 110 cm (3.6
ft) above last year; Montreal Harbour is 19 cm (7.5
inches) above average and 163 cm (5.3 ft) above last year.
► The long-range (3-month) climate outlook of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates
equal probabilities of average, above average, and below
average temperatures and precipitation.
► The water content of the Lake Ontario basin
snow pack was estimated to be about 117 % of the average
for early March, and the Ottawa River basin snow pack is
close to average.
The Board, in conjunction with its staff, will continue
to monitor the situation and act accordingly. This
information can also be found on the Board web site (see
below) and will be updated as required.
The International Joint Commission was created under the
Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 to help prevent and resolve
disputes over the use of waters along the Canada-United
States boundary. Its responsibilities include approving
certain projects that would change water levels on the other
side of the boundary, such as the international hydropower
project at Massena, New York and Cornwall, Ontario. When it
approves a project, the Commission’s Orders of Approval
may require that flows through the project meet certain
conditions to protect interests in both countries. For more
information, visit the Commission’s website at www.ijc.org.
The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control was
established by the International Joint Commission, mainly to
ensure that outflows from Lake Ontario meet the requirements
of the Commission’s Orders of Approval. For more
information, visit the Board’s website at www.islrbc.org.
For Release: March 12, 2004
Contacts:
Reg Golding, Ottawa, Ontario (613) 998-1408
John Kangas, Chicago, Illinois (312) 353-4333
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