Outflow Strategy
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Copyrights : International St. Lawrence River Board of Control


Lake Ontario Outflow Strategy
(March 12, 2004)

The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control (Board) met by teleconference on March 10 to discuss current and anticipated conditions, as well as operations since early February, and decided to continue the outflow strategy announced on February 17. That is:

  1. Outflows will generally be in accordance with those specified by Plan 1958-D;
  2. Outflows may be adjusted to maintain a stable ice cover or prevent flooding.

The strategy will be followed until the Board meeting on March 23-24 when conditions will again be reviewed.

The Board considered the following factors (among others) in its strategy considerations:

► On March 8, Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron were 19 cm (7.5 inches) and 43 cm (17 inches) below average, respectively. Lake Erie was 9 cm (3.5 inches) below average and 21 cm (8.3 inches) above last year. Lake Erie is expected to remain below average throughout the next 6 months.

► On March 8, Lake Ontario was at elevation 74.72 m (245.14 ft). This was 8 cm (3.1 inches) above average and 43 cm (16.9 inches) above last year. The Lake had been slowly falling since mid-January, but may have begun its seasonal rise in the past few days. This level is also 65 cm (2.1 ft) below the upper regulation limit, and 57 cm (1.9 ft) above the lower regulation limit that applies during the navigation season.

► The level of Lake Ontario is expected to rise to about 74.96 m (245.93 ft) by the end of June. The end-of-June level would then be about 8 cm (3.1 inches) below average and 41 cm (16.1 inches) below the upper regulation limit. If very wet or very dry conditions prevail between now and the end of June, the water level could be 21 cm (8.3 inches) higher or 22 cm (8.7 inches) lower, respectively, than the expected level of 74.96 m (245.93 ft). The risk of exceeding the upper regulation limit is extremely low.

► The below-average levels of Lake Erie will produce below-average inflows to Lake Ontario over the next 6 months. A change in Lake Erie elevation of 9 cm (3.5 inches) results in about a 190 m3/s (6,700 cfs) change in Niagara River flow.

► Downstream conditions were noted: Lake St. Louis is 25 cm (9.8 inches) above average and 110 cm (3.6 ft) above last year; Montreal Harbour is 19 cm (7.5 inches) above average and 163 cm (5.3 ft) above last year.

► The long-range (3-month) climate outlook of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates equal probabilities of average, above average, and below average temperatures and precipitation.

► The water content of the Lake Ontario basin snow pack was estimated to be about 117 % of the average for early March, and the Ottawa River basin snow pack is close to average.

 

The Board, in conjunction with its staff, will continue to monitor the situation and act accordingly. This information can also be found on the Board web site (see below) and will be updated as required.

The International Joint Commission was created under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 to help prevent and resolve disputes over the use of waters along the Canada-United States boundary. Its responsibilities include approving certain projects that would change water levels on the other side of the boundary, such as the international hydropower project at Massena, New York and Cornwall, Ontario. When it approves a project, the Commission’s Orders of Approval may require that flows through the project meet certain conditions to protect interests in both countries. For more information, visit the Commission’s website at www.ijc.org.

The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control was established by the International Joint Commission, mainly to ensure that outflows from Lake Ontario meet the requirements of the Commission’s Orders of Approval. For more information, visit the Board’s website at www.islrbc.org.

For Release: March 12, 2004


Contacts:

Reg Golding, Ottawa, Ontario (613) 998-1408

John Kangas, Chicago, Illinois (312) 353-4333