The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control (Board) reviewed conditions in the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system on January 12 and decided to continue with the release of outflows specified by Plan 1958-D. There is very little risk of exceeding either the upper or lower water level limits before next summer. As we are in the winter season, outflows may be varied in order to assist the ice formation process. Also, in consideration of the risk of low levels in the Montreal area, the Board authorized outflow increases that may be needed to maintain the level on Lake St. Louis, as measured at Pointe-Claire, above 20.6 m (67.6 ft) and meet critical needs of navigation in the Port of Montreal. Similar increases were authorized to meet critical needs of hydropower interests. Any such over- or under-discharges will be limited to no more than 600 cubic meters per second (cms) (21,200 cubic feet per second (cfs)) per day and 300 cms (10,600 cfs) per week. Other factors considered in deciding on this strategy are as follows:

• Plan 1958-D has continued to respond well in dealing with the varying supplies of recent months. The Lake Ontario level rose more than normal during December. On January 10^th, the Lake level was about 14 cm (5.5 in.) above average. Under average weather conditions, the level is likely to to remain fairly stable or decline slightly until it starts its spring rise in March. The long-range water levels forecast indicates the Lake would be 1 cm (0.4 in.) below average at the end of June if average weather conditions occur.
• Last month the total supplies to Lake Ontario were above average. This largely reflects the heavy precipitation received over the local basin as well as above average inflow from Lake Erie. Supplies from Lake Erie are expected to remain near or slightly above average for the next several months. The 90-day weather outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts below normal precipitation and equal chances for temperatures to be normal, above normal, or below normal. The 90-day outlook from Environment Canada forecasts normal precipitation and temperatures.
• Water levels in the Montreal area are expected to remain below average for the next month if Ottawa River and local tributary inflows remain below average.
• There are still 2.9 cm (1.1 in.) of water conserved on Lake Ontario, being held to meet critical needs of interests. There is a chance that a portion of this reserve might be needed to assist hydropower or navigation in the Port of Montreal and Seaway. The Board’s intent is to retain about this amount of water during the winter and determine whether this amount of storage is appropriate as we approach the spring.
• Risk analysis shows that the level of Lake Ontario will remain well within the range of levels specified in the International Joint Commission’s criteria for regulation of Lake Ontario for the next 12 months unless extreme wet or dry conditions occur. The levels should also remain below levels thought to exacerbate shoreline erosion and well above minimum levels required for safe navigation in the Seaway.
• However, there is about a 13% chance that Lake St. Louis will reach the flood level of 22.33 m this spring. The Board’s strategy allows for the retention of water to cover this situation. There is also a 36% chance that levels in Lake St. Louis will be below the minimum required for Seaway navigation at some point in 2005.
• There is about a 62% chance that the Port of Montreal will experience below-datum levels at some point in 2005.

The Board, in conjunction with its staff, will continue to monitor the situation, and will meet again in about four weeks to re-assess the situation, or earlier if there is a significant change in conditions before then.

This information can also be found on the Board’s web site (see address below), where it is updated as required.

The International Joint Commission was created under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 to help prevent and resolve disputes over the use of waters along the Canada-United States boundary. Its responsibilities include approving certain projects that would change water levels on the other side of the boundary, such as the international hydropower project at Massena, New York and Cornwall, Ontario. When it approves a project, the Commission’s Orders of Approval may require that flows through the project meet certain conditions to protect interests in both countries. For more information, visit the Commission’s website at www.ijc.org.

The International St. Lawrence River Board of Control was established by the International Joint Commission, mainly to ensure that outflows from Lake Ontario meet the requirements of the Commission’s Orders of Approval. For more information, visit the Board’s website at www.islrbc.org.

For Release: January 14, 2005

Contacts:

Reg Golding, Ottawa, Ontario (613) 998-1408 e-mail: GoldingR@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

John Kangas, Chicago, Illinois (312) 353-4333 e-mail: John.W.Kangas@usace.army.mil